Long Run Macroeconomic Patterns

INTRODUCTION

Argentina’s macroeconomic experience showed strong cyclical fluctuations, as well as important structural changes which impact in the long run economic growth and macroeconomic patterns.

This research has the challenge to identify the trends of the main macroeconomic aggregates in the long run taking into account the unstable behavior of Argentinean economy.

For this purpose, ARKLEMS team developed a dynamic database to analyze, as for example: When was the higher rate of investment observed in the last fifty years? In which period were the productivity gains the main driver of growth? What were the importance of international trade and the terms of trade in the last fifty years?

The Long Run Macroeconomic and Growth Patterns database enables researchers to analyze the whole period (1950 – present) through a unique set of macroeconomic series that were developed using methodologies such as the theory of index numbers and the consistence of national accounts with different base years and relative prices.

In this way, the database allows, among others, the intertemporal comparison of Investment, Savings, Trade Openness and Terms of Trade across different periods with different macroeconomic configurations of the Argentine Economy.

Taking into account the main objective to obtain a unique set of source of growth during the whole period (1950 – present), the long run macroeconomic patterns of Argentina also includes main source of growth (capital, labor, labor and total factor productivity) by a simple accounting approach.

Exhaustive measurement of Source of Growth:  ICT contribution, capital services, labor composition, natural resource, productivity and capital stock at industry level, short and long run productivity series and others could be obtain for the period 1990-2010 in the ARKLEMS+LAND database.

References

The methodology and previous version (1950-2006):

This book presents the measurement methodology for the macroeconomic and growth series, econometric exercises on savings and investment, some simple calculations on growth accounting and a comparative analysis of the different macroeconomic environments during the last century.

SERIES:

Below the 1950-2006 series are presented. Update to 2010 that will be presented soon.

Tables 1 and 2

Tables 1.1 to 1.6

Comments are closed.